Floyd Amphlett- It can't be that hard can it?

Floyd Amphlett- It can't be that hard can it?

It is the Holy Grail of greyhound racing, the English Derby. Fortunes and lifetimes have been spent on pursuing the ultimate prize – and very often failing. So what are the odds of winning a Derby and how have they changed? 

Starting with some figures.

Each year there are roughly 1,830 litters of greyhounds born in Britain and Ireland though only around 7% are British bred. They would result in around 11,700 greyhounds.

Given there is one Derby per year, and only four double winners in almost a century, you might make a starting point of one chance in 11,700 of winning the big one. The good news (!) is, that the numbers being born is around a third of what it was 20 years ago. 

Quids in!

We can shave that number by probably 15% in terms of greyhounds who fail to make the track. The missing hounds would include those who die of injury or illness before reaching adulthood, plus the non-chasers..Then take out those kept specifically for breeding of coursing and you might be down to around 9,500 greyhounds who could potentially win an English Derby.

By definition then, the 180 or so hounds that are entered in the Derby – are among the elite 2% of middle distance hounds.

This entry figure has remained remarkably consistent in recent times despite the huge fluctuations in the number of greyhounds born.

For many years though, the Derby entry was restricted to 48, chosen and seeded from 1 to 48 by the racing manager. Following complaints of bias and ‘closed shop’, that was tweaked whereby the RM would select 36 with the remaining 12 places being taken by trialstake winners.

(Under the original system it seems unlikely that the likes of Tartan Khan, Salad Dodger or possibly Astute Missile would have made the cut.)

That system was tweaked again in the 1970s to include trialstakes at other GRA tracks, augmented by the fastest qualifiers from designated trial sessions.

On realising the untapped commercial opportunity of staging hugely popular free trial sessions, the decision was eventually made to open the event up to anyone prepared to pay the entry fee and the qualifying round was split over a series of evening race meetings.

The result was instant.

 In 1979 there were 209 entries which had risen to 218 when I’m Slippy landed the event in 1983. The novelty gradually wore off and by 1999, Wimbledon announced their smallest ever entry, 152. The flexibility of numbers brought its own issues, particularly with late withdrawals and four/five runner races (which was deemed an issue back then). It was following the switching of the event to Nottingham in 2020 that the management announced a return to a more manageable limit of 192.

Of course there are other biases in winning a Derby.

Although female Derby winners occur roughly as often as males retaining their titles.

The list of bitches winning the Derby is a short one. One in the last 44 years – and that was by disqualification of the winner, and only five in total: Farloe Verdict (’03), Sarahs Bunny (’79), Dolores Rocket (’71), Narrogar Ann (’49) and Greta Renee (’35). That contrasts strongly with more stamina laded events, three of the last five St.Leger winners were female. Eight of the last nine TV Trophy winners were bitches.

Running styles have also changed. The decline of wide runners seen so regularly in the graded racing is also reflected in the Derby.

This year, 65% of the runners are seeded as railers, followed by 16% as middles and 18% wides. For many years there were only two options but still the contrast is interesting. Take 1982 as a typical example. Of the 208 entries, 115 (55%)were railers with 93 (45%) seeded wide.

Without doubt though, the biggest change in recent years has been the growth of the Irish entry.

The Irish have always had a massive influence in the Derby, though the winning Irish trainers were UK based, and there were plenty of them: Fortune, McEvoy, Hannafin, Keane, Jackson. . . 

When Paddy Dunphy won the 1962 Derby with The Grand Canal, it was a first ever Irish based English Derby winner. Sand Star followed seven years later, but when John O’Connor trained Patricia’s Hope to win the ’73 final, he was one of only five Irish entries.

But led by McKenna, O’Donnell, Graham, and then Paul Hennessy, the Eireans seem to have developed a taste for it. 

Including the West Country refugee ‘G Holland esq.’, the Irish have won six of the last nine Derbys and they have a combined 22 runners this year.

Without in any way attempting to undermine that incredible achievement, it is simply down to superior training?

I would suggest that as good, or even great, as the Irish handlers are, there is another major factor at stake. The loss of our great stadiums: White City, Wembley, Walthamstow, Wimbledon, and the emphasis on daytime racing, has robbed us of an elite group of owners.

The British businessmen who would be spending the equivalent of £70/£80/£90,000 on the best young Irish stock, are no longer there in numbers.

Combine that and a smaller number of pups being bred and the top Irish kennels are able to hold onto their brightest talent.

Hopefully a few interesting asides, though none of which will help you pick the winner!